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Thread: What percent right now would you give to a 2020 college football season?

  1. #961

    Default Re: What percent right now would you give to a 2020 college football season?

    Quote Originally Posted by BravesBrownsGS View Post
    Guys it's gonna be normal in 2021 relax
    Not sure if serious . . .

    Only two things would make things go back to something resembling 'normal' in that time frame:

    1. a fully functional and effective and fully distributed vaccine (not likely on that time frame, imo) giving everyone sufficient peace of mind to allow a return to normal, or

    2. the adoption of a more moderate risk tolerance paradigm consistent with other existing/historical life/health risks (because there WILL be cases for the foreseeable future, and under the current mindset, a case or two on a team likely means the team gets effectively shut down -- not conducive to the progression of a 'normal' season).
    Sincerely,
    Irwin M. Fletcher

    P.S.: Have a nice day!

  2. #962

    Default Re: What percent right now would you give to a 2020 college football season?

    There's not going to be exponential spread of this next fall. I think we will see vaccination and natural herd immunity combine to slow COVID cases to a crawl. And there will always be COVID cases. It's never being eradicated. But it's going to become a lot less big of a deal in time.

  3. #963

    Default Re: What percent right now would you give to a 2020 college football season?

    Quote Originally Posted by BravesBrownsGS View Post
    There's not going to be exponential spread of this next fall. I think we will see vaccination and natural herd immunity combine to slow COVID cases to a crawl. And there will always be COVID cases. It's never being eradicated. But it's going to become a lot less big of a deal in time.
    There are two hopeful signs, both of which have been mentioned on here before, but probably in the original thread.

    First, the medical profession is learning how to treat this thing. Death rates have been cut in half just because of that. That was always going to be the big benefit of flattering the curve: buying the scientists time to analyze this thing and doctors the time to locate best practices.

    Second, there are signs of widespread t cell immunity due to (a) resemblance of the "novel" cv to previous cold viruses...not identical but similar enough, apparently, and (b) masks let through just a few cv particles, and that's enough to create almost a vaccine like effect. Dosage matters, and a very low dosage can educate your immune system without getting you sick. Consequently, areas with high mask usage are showing about double the rates of symptom-free immunity as other areas.

    Do you remember way back in the early days of the first thread when I mentioned how dandruff particles were found in the jet stream? They flew a special aero foam way up high to near outer space and found all sorts of crap shooting around the world in the big breezes. A virus molecule is smaller than dandruff. So, yes, people will encounter it, and herd immunity will not come exclusively from shots. This article suggests we are around 40% immunity now.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...navirus-covid/

  4. #964

    Default Re: What percent right now would you give to a 2020 college football season?

    GS: the first AAL NC’s!

  5. #965

    Default Re: What percent right now would you give to a 2020 college football season?

    Quote Originally Posted by BravesBrownsGS View Post
    There's not going to be exponential spread of this next fall. I think we will see vaccination and natural herd immunity combine to slow COVID cases to a crawl. And there will always be COVID cases. It's never being eradicated. But it's going to become a lot less big of a deal in time.
    The reaction that you're describing is what should happen, and what should've happened vis a vis death rates and emerging knowledge of demographic impact, but it didn't and it won't, imo. Unless a consensus is reached on what criteria and at what level of those criteria represent the tipping point for a general exhale, there will remain a spectrum of opinions on how 'big of a deal' it is, and the 'bigger deal' faction will continue to set the bar for our collective reaction. Without such a benchmark, it's going to take a looong time and an extraordinary degree of perceived safety for a large contingent of the population to view this in the context it views other, similar (or even greater) risks.
    Sincerely,
    Irwin M. Fletcher

    P.S.: Have a nice day!

  6. #966

    Default Re: What percent right now would you give to a 2020 college football season?

    Quote Originally Posted by BravesBrownsGS View Post
    There's not going to be exponential spread of this next fall. I think we will see vaccination and natural herd immunity combine to slow COVID cases to a crawl. And there will always be COVID cases. It's never being eradicated. But it's going to become a lot less big of a deal in time.
    There's no exponential spread most places in the country now.
    "Follow the trendlines, not the headlines." -Steven Pinker (?)

    Regarding football Scheduling.

  7. #967

    Default Re: What percent right now would you give to a 2020 college football season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rad View Post
    There are two hopeful signs, both of which have been mentioned on here before, but probably in the original thread.

    First, the medical profession is learning how to treat this thing. Death rates have been cut in half just because of that. That was always going to be the big benefit of flattering the curve: buying the scientists time to analyze this thing and doctors the time to locate best practices.

    Second, there are signs of widespread t cell immunity due to (a) resemblance of the "novel" cv to previous cold viruses...not identical but similar enough, apparently, and (b) masks let through just a few cv particles, and that's enough to create almost a vaccine like effect. Dosage matters, and a very low dosage can educate your immune system without getting you sick.

    Do you remember way back in the early days of the first thread when I mentioned how dandruff particles were found in the jet stream? They flew a special aero foam way up high to near outer space and found all sorts of crap shooting around the world in the big breezes. A virus molecule is smaller than dandruff. So, yes, people will encounter it, and herd immunity may not have to come exclusively from shots. This article suggests we are around 40% now.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...navirus-covid/
    Are you suggesting that the virus can exit a host, travel to the jetstream, return to earth, remain sufficiently concentrated and viable the entire time, and infect a new host in sufficient quantity to cause them to contract the illness?
    Sincerely,
    Irwin M. Fletcher

    P.S.: Have a nice day!

  8. #968

    Default Re: What percent right now would you give to a 2020 college football season?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillyBob View Post
    There's no exponential spread most places in the country now.
    Shhhh.

    It's all about gross, cumulative numbers, now. Try to keep up.
    Sincerely,
    Irwin M. Fletcher

    P.S.: Have a nice day!

  9. #969

    Default Re: What percent right now would you give to a 2020 college football season?

    Quote Originally Posted by GATAlac El Dorado View Post
    Shhhh.

    It's all about gross, cumulative numbers, now. Try to keep up.
    but only until NOVEMBER

  10. #970

    Default Re: What percent right now would you give to a 2020 college football season?

    Quote Originally Posted by GATAlac El Dorado View Post
    Are you suggesting that the virus can exit a host, travel to the jetstream, return to earth, remain sufficiently concentrated and viable the entire time, and infect a new host in sufficient quantity to cause them to contract the illness?
    Sure. The virus is just a little particle. I don't know if they could survive such a trip, but it's possible. You are far more likely to get it from somebody breathing in the same room as you, but eventually things spread around the globe. Would you have guessed dandruff would survive such a trip? I certainly wouldn't.

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