SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

[PowerEagle]

Update after Week 8 -

SP+ rankings -
4. LSU
15. Minnesota
40. App State
53. UL-L
87. Ark State
93. Troy
100. GS
103. Texas St
104. Coastal Carolina
105. Ga State
112. UL-M
121. NMSU
124. South Bama

This is actually starting to look way more optimistic - edit - I was looking at Ga State's. F.

[PowerEagle]

ESPN FPI rankings - Week 9

4. LSU
26. Minnesota
40. App State
53. UL-L
92. Ark State
94. Ga State
98. Troy
102. GS
104. Coastal Carolina
113. UL-M
115. Texas State
123. NMSU
126. South Bama

[BillyBob]

Update after Week 8 -

SP+ rankings -
4. LSU
15. Minnesota
40. App State
53. UL-L
87. Ark State
93. Troy
100. GS
103. Texas St
104. Coastal Carolina
105. Ga State
112. UL-M
121. NMSU
124. South Bama

This is actually starting to look way more optimistic - edit - I was looking at Ga State's. F.

The good news is we cleared a coin-flip game with a win and our chances of bowl eligibility are around 60% (up from just under 40%). I honestly think we'll win 1 of the 3 road games, but probably lose to either ULM or Gag as well.

[kdarnell233]

The good news is we cleared a coin-flip game with a win and our chances of bowl eligibility are around 60% (up from just under 40%). I honestly think we'll win 1 of the 3 road games, but probably lose to either ULM or Gag as well.

The only SURE win I've got left is NMSU.

Troy, ULM, Ga State, and Arkansas State all have defenses bad enough to where our offense could put up some points. However, teams like Georgia State and ULM have high powered offenses that I don't think we can keep up with. Of our remaining games, here's what I think the final score differential will be:

NMSU: GS by 23
App State: App by 26
Troy: Troy by 2
ULM: ULM by 3
ASU: ASU by 10
Ga State: Ga State by 14

[BillyBob]

The only SURE win I've got left is NMSU.

Troy, ULM, Ga State, and Arkansas State all have defenses bad enough to where our offense could put up some points. However, teams like Georgia State and ULM have high powered offenses that I don't think we can keep up with. Of our remaining games, here's what I think the final score differential will be:

NMSU: GS by 23
App State: App by 26
Troy: Troy by 2
ULM: ULM by 3
ASU: ASU by 10
Ga State: Ga State by 14

We are S&P favorites in all of the home games with at least a a 60% win probability.

I think ULM's offense could give us problems, but State's offense just isn't that good and their strength of schedule has just been weak.

[PowerEagle]

ESPN FPI Predictions week 8 -

vs NMSU - 85.1%
@ App - 10.7%
@ Troy - 39.9%
vs ULM - 68.7%
@ ArkSt - 34.4%
vs GagSt - 54.1%

6-6, IF that holds true.

[garns 4]

ULM's high powered offense put up 7 on Appy. Troy, Ark State are not that good. Gag unfortunately is turning into a rival game. We can excluding Appy, win out. Appy, like I said at start of season scares the poop out of me.

[BillyBob]

ULM's high powered offense put up 7 on Appy. Troy, Ark State are not that good. Gag unfortunately is turning into a rival game. We can excluding Appy, win out. Appy, like I said at start of season scares the poop out of me.

What?

I mean, I'm not going to overlook them because of what happened last season bu their offense isn't even good by Sun Belt standards and their defense is absolutely awful.

[kdarnell233]

What?

I mean, I'm not going to overlook them because of what happened last season bu their offense isn't even good by Sun Belt standards and their defense is absolutely awful.

Keep in mind, the ratings below take into account strength of schedule and garbage time. The numbers are based on point contributions of each unit to the teams scoring margin on a per-play basis. It's on a 0.0-100.0 scale with 50.0 being average. Here's the Sun Belt offenses:

Georgia State: 76.8
Louisiana: 72.3
App State: 70.2
ULM: 57.0
Arkansas State: 52.6
Troy: 46.7
CCU: 38.4
Southern: 25.2
Texas State: 11.6
South Alabama: 10.3

Defense:

App State: 55.5
Louisiana: 52.3
Texas State: 48.7
Southern: 46.6
CCU: 38.3
Arkansas State: 37.4
South Alabama: 32.0
Georgia State: 27.0
ULM: 25.7
Troy: 24.2

[BillyBob]

Keep in mind, the ratings below take into account strength of schedule and garbage time. The numbers are based on point contributions of each unit to the teams scoring margin on a per-play basis. It's on a 0.0-100.0 scale with 50.0 being average. Here's the Sun Belt offenses:

Georgia State: 76.8
Louisiana: 72.3
App State: 70.2
ULM: 57.0
Arkansas State: 52.6
Troy: 46.7
CCU: 38.4
Southern: 25.2
Texas State: 11.6
South Alabama: 10.3

Defense:

App State: 55.5
Louisiana: 52.3
Texas State: 48.7
Southern: 46.6
CCU: 38.3
Arkansas State: 37.4
South Alabama: 32.0
Georgia State: 27.0
ULM: 25.7
Troy: 24.2

I think there's something screwy going on because no way is State's offense better than App. App is better statistically and I don't think they've played any worse a group of defenses

I'm also wondering why it values App's defense so much. Compare the offenses we've faced:
1. Compare LSU to ULL
2. Compare Minnesota to UNC (Minnesota is a lot better)
3. Compare ULL to Coastal
4. Compare Coastal to Charlotte

All that and App's defensive yards per play is 0.2 yards less than ours.