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Thread: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

  1. #21

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    BTW, there is one aspect in which our offense is actually better than last year.

    Our power rate (the percentage of runs on 3rd or 4th down with 2 yards or less to go which are converted) is good and is better than 2014 and 2015 and a lot better than last year.

    I don't know if people noticed or not, but we actually went for it on a 4th and 1 against South Alabama in the 2nd quarter in our own territory. That's not because CCL is getting desperate or bold. We seem to more reliably pick up at least a couple of yards even when defenses crowd the box than we did last year, and when that happens you can be more bold on 4th and short. I wouldn't be surprised if our percentage of plays at least 3 yards is higher than last season.

    Of course, our success rate is awful and even worse than 2017, though I think penalties, bad snaps, recovered fumbles, preventable negative plays have pretty much murdered that number. We've really only had (after the LSU game) maybe 4 3-and-outs that can't be attributable to some self-inflicted wound, and that's an improvement over last season.

    Of course, with every number we need to keep in mind 40% of our schedule is P5 teams with a combined 9-0 record and maybe the best team in the conference.
    "Follow the trendlines, not the headlines." -Steven Pinker (?)

    Regarding football Scheduling.

  2. #22

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Update - after week 7

    5. LSU
    17. Minnesota
    54. App
    68. Louisiana
    85. Ark St
    98. Troy
    102. Coastal Carolina
    105. Texas St.
    106. ULM
    108. GS
    111. GaSt
    123. NMSU
    125. South Alabama


  3. #23

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    ESPN FPI Predictions - Week 8

    CCU - 65.4%
    NMSU - 84.8%
    App - 13.7%
    Troy - 38.8%
    ULM - 60.5%
    Ark St - 30.1%
    Ga St - 53.9%

  4. #24

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Like I said in another thread, the conference this year looks like 8 teams with 6 win ceilings, then ULL and App.

    EDIT: Here's everyone's overall team efficiency for the season with 50 being average.

    1. App State: 67.2
    2. Louisiana: 60.0
    3. Georgia State: 52.3
    4. Arkansas State: 49.7
    5. UL-Monroe: 38.6
    6. Georgia Southern: 36.6
    7. Coastal Carolina: 31.3
    8. Troy: 27.8
    9. Texas State: 25.5
    10. South Alabama: 14.1

  5. #25

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by PowerEagle View Post
    ESPN FPI Predictions - Week 8

    CCU - 65.4%
    NMSU - 84.8%
    App - 13.7%
    Troy - 38.8%
    ULM - 60.5%
    Ark St - 30.1%
    Ga St - 53.9%
    Like I said. 6-6 baby!

  6. #26
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    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by Buzz Killington View Post
    Like I said. 6-6 baby!
    6-6 BABY? Not something I'd be proud about predicting!
    GSU Spread Option FOOTBALL - out weighed, but never outplayed

  7. Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by TALON View Post
    6-6 BABY? Not something I'd be proud about predicting!
    I think he's being sarcastic.

    It's a long way down from I-AA though.

  8. #28

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by TALON View Post
    6-6 BABY? Not something I'd be proud about predicting!
    I'm very proud. I tried to warn you Talon.

    6-6 team masquerading as a 10 win team last year.

    Our 10 win 2018 team would have been wiped off the field by the 2014 or 2015 squad. Neither of those teams won 10 games.
    Last edited by Buzz Killington; 17th October 2019 at 04:58 AM.

  9. #29

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by Buzz Killington View Post
    Our 10 win 2018 team would have been wiped off the field by the 2014 or 2015 squad. Neither of those teams won 10 games.
    Agreed. Since I've developed this recent obsession with efficiency stats, I looked up overall 2014 and 15 compared with 2018.

    2014: 60.0 (42nd)
    2015: 64.4 (39th)
    2018: 54.1 (60th)

    EDIT: Our offensive efficiency this year is the lowest it's been since moving up to FBS. That includes 2017.

  10. #30

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by kdarnell233 View Post
    Agreed. Since I've developed this recent obsession with efficiency stats, I looked up overall 2014 and 15 compared with 2018.

    2014: 60.0 (42nd)
    2015: 64.4 (39th)
    2018: 54.1 (60th)
    funny, my wife has me on weekly efficiency stats/charts.

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