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Thread: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

  1. #11

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by TCM View Post
    SO 6-6 or maybe 7-5. That is what most people predicted before the season started.
    Yep. I think this is what I said before the season:

    Likely Wins:
    Georgia State
    Coastal Carolina
    New Mexico State
    South Alabama

    Toss-Ups:
    ULL
    ULM
    Arkansas State
    Troy

    Likely Losses:
    Minnesota
    Appalachian State
    LSU

    Given our play over the first 4 games, I'd move Arkansas State and Troy into likely losses. That leaves only 1 toss-up in ULM. So 5-7 or 6-6 seems most realistic right now.

  2. #12

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by TCM View Post
    SO 6-6 or maybe 7-5. That is what most people predicted before the season started.
    I think it's now 5-7 or maybe 6-6, at least that's what the models above say.

  3. Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by GSUfanforever View Post
    I think it's now 5-7 or maybe 6-6, at least that's what the models above say.
    6 is possible, because we do have several players with insane ability to salvage something from nothing....

    But at this point, our fundamentals are so screwed up, we have no right to be certain of even 5.

  4. #14

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    After week 6 -

    SP+ Rankings
    5. LSU
    26. Minnesota
    49. App State
    60. ULL
    84. Arkansas State
    96. Troy
    99. Coastal Carolina
    104. Texas State
    106. ULM
    108. Georgia Southern
    115. Georgia State
    122. NMSU
    123. South Alabama

    FPI Predictions - Week 7
    vs. CCU - 62.8%
    vs. NMSU - 85.0%
    @ App - 16.0%
    @ Troy - 39.9%
    vs. ULM - 65.3%
    @ Ark St - 31.5%
    vs. Ga St - 58.8%


  5. #15

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by PowerEagle View Post
    After week 6 -

    SP+ Rankings
    5. LSU
    26. Minnesota
    49. App State
    60. ULL
    84. Arkansas State
    96. Troy
    99. Coastal Carolina
    104. Texas State
    106. ULM
    108. Georgia Southern
    115. Georgia State
    122. NMSU
    123. South Alabama

    FPI Predictions - Week 7
    vs. CCU - 62.8%
    vs. NMSU - 85.0%
    @ App - 16.0%
    @ Troy - 39.9%
    vs. ULM - 65.3%
    @ Ark St - 31.5%
    vs. Ga St - 58.8%

    That Georgia State probability has been creeping closer to 50% each week. Surprisingly, they have the 12th most efficient offense in the country.

  6. #16

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by kdarnell233 View Post
    That Georgia State probability has been creeping closer to 50% each week. Surprisingly, they have the 12th most efficient offense in the country.
    Yea, I know the week to week changes are very volatile, but with 6 weeks of data now for this season, I think it's pretty obvious what the pecking order is for the Sun Belt and what we should expect from the remainder of our season. I'll be surprised if we make it to bowl eligibility, and it will likely come down to that last week against them in Paulson.

  7. #17
    Join Date
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    Location
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    27,242

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by kdarnell233 View Post
    That Georgia State probability has been creeping closer to 50% each week. Surprisingly, they have the 12th most efficient offense in the country.
    More of a function of us dropping than them moving up.

    They're still at 115.


  8. #18

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by eaglewraith View Post
    More of a function of us dropping than them moving up.

    They're still at 115.
    Not sure how much weight can be put into ESPN's efficiency ratings, but...

    Southern offense: 22.8 (114th)
    Ga State offense: 79.8 (12th)

    Southern defense: 45.3 (83rd)
    Ga State defense: 20.7 (122nd)

    Southern overall: 38.0 (92nd)
    Ga State overall: 48.6 (78th)

  9. #19
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Warner Robins, GA
    Posts
    27,242

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by kdarnell233 View Post
    Not sure how much weight can be put into ESPN's efficiency ratings, but...

    Southern offense: 22.8 (114th)
    Ga State offense: 79.8 (12th)

    Southern defense: 45.3 (83rd)
    Ga State defense: 20.7 (122nd)

    Southern overall: 38.0 (92nd)
    Ga State overall: 48.6 (78th)
    What is their measure for efficiency?


  10. #20

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by eaglewraith View Post
    What is their measure for efficiency?
    "Team efficiencies are based on the point contributions of each unit to the team's scoring margin, on a per-play basis. The values are adjusted for strength of schedule and down-weighted for "garbage time" (based on win probability). The scale goes from 0 to 100; higher numbers are better and the average is roughly 50 for all categories. Efficiencies update daily during the season."

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