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Thread: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

  1. #31

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Update after Week 8 -

    SP+ rankings -
    4. LSU
    15. Minnesota
    40. App State
    53. UL-L
    87. Ark State
    93. Troy
    100. GS
    103. Texas St
    104. Coastal Carolina
    105. Ga State
    112. UL-M
    121. NMSU
    124. South Bama

    This is actually starting to look way more optimistic - edit - I was looking at Ga State's. F.

  2. #32

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    ESPN FPI rankings - Week 9

    4. LSU
    26. Minnesota
    40. App State
    53. UL-L
    92. Ark State
    94. Ga State
    98. Troy
    102. GS
    104. Coastal Carolina
    113. UL-M
    115. Texas State
    123. NMSU
    126. South Bama

  3. #33

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by PowerEagle View Post
    Update after Week 8 -

    SP+ rankings -
    4. LSU
    15. Minnesota
    40. App State
    53. UL-L
    87. Ark State
    93. Troy
    100. GS
    103. Texas St
    104. Coastal Carolina
    105. Ga State
    112. UL-M
    121. NMSU
    124. South Bama

    This is actually starting to look way more optimistic - edit - I was looking at Ga State's. F.
    The good news is we cleared a coin-flip game with a win and our chances of bowl eligibility are around 60% (up from just under 40%). I honestly think we'll win 1 of the 3 road games, but probably lose to either ULM or Gag as well.
    "Follow the trendlines, not the headlines." -Steven Pinker (?)

    Regarding football Scheduling.

  4. #34

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by BillyBob View Post
    The good news is we cleared a coin-flip game with a win and our chances of bowl eligibility are around 60% (up from just under 40%). I honestly think we'll win 1 of the 3 road games, but probably lose to either ULM or Gag as well.
    The only SURE win I've got left is NMSU.

    Troy, ULM, Ga State, and Arkansas State all have defenses bad enough to where our offense could put up some points. However, teams like Georgia State and ULM have high powered offenses that I don't think we can keep up with. Of our remaining games, here's what I think the final score differential will be:

    NMSU: GS by 23
    App State: App by 26
    Troy: Troy by 2
    ULM: ULM by 3
    ASU: ASU by 10
    Ga State: Ga State by 14

  5. #35

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by kdarnell233 View Post
    The only SURE win I've got left is NMSU.

    Troy, ULM, Ga State, and Arkansas State all have defenses bad enough to where our offense could put up some points. However, teams like Georgia State and ULM have high powered offenses that I don't think we can keep up with. Of our remaining games, here's what I think the final score differential will be:

    NMSU: GS by 23
    App State: App by 26
    Troy: Troy by 2
    ULM: ULM by 3
    ASU: ASU by 10
    Ga State: Ga State by 14
    We are S&P favorites in all of the home games with at least a a 60% win probability.

    I think ULM's offense could give us problems, but State's offense just isn't that good and their strength of schedule has just been weak.
    "Follow the trendlines, not the headlines." -Steven Pinker (?)

    Regarding football Scheduling.

  6. #36

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    ESPN FPI Predictions week 8 -

    vs NMSU - 85.1%
    @ App - 10.7%
    @ Troy - 39.9%
    vs ULM - 68.7%
    @ ArkSt - 34.4%
    vs GagSt - 54.1%

    6-6, IF that holds true.

  7. #37

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    ULM's high powered offense put up 7 on Appy. Troy, Ark State are not that good. Gag unfortunately is turning into a rival game. We can excluding Appy, win out. Appy, like I said at start of season scares the poop out of me.

  8. #38

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by garns 4 View Post
    ULM's high powered offense put up 7 on Appy. Troy, Ark State are not that good. Gag unfortunately is turning into a rival game. We can excluding Appy, win out. Appy, like I said at start of season scares the poop out of me.
    What?

    I mean, I'm not going to overlook them because of what happened last season bu their offense isn't even good by Sun Belt standards and their defense is absolutely awful.
    "Follow the trendlines, not the headlines." -Steven Pinker (?)

    Regarding football Scheduling.

  9. #39

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by BillyBob View Post
    What?

    I mean, I'm not going to overlook them because of what happened last season bu their offense isn't even good by Sun Belt standards and their defense is absolutely awful.
    Keep in mind, the ratings below take into account strength of schedule and garbage time. The numbers are based on point contributions of each unit to the teams scoring margin on a per-play basis. It's on a 0.0-100.0 scale with 50.0 being average. Here's the Sun Belt offenses:

    Georgia State: 76.8
    Louisiana: 72.3
    App State: 70.2
    ULM: 57.0
    Arkansas State: 52.6
    Troy: 46.7
    CCU: 38.4
    Southern: 25.2
    Texas State: 11.6
    South Alabama: 10.3

    Defense:

    App State: 55.5
    Louisiana: 52.3
    Texas State: 48.7
    Southern: 46.6
    CCU: 38.3
    Arkansas State: 37.4
    South Alabama: 32.0
    Georgia State: 27.0
    ULM: 25.7
    Troy: 24.2

  10. #40

    Default Re: SP+ rankings - Sun Belt

    Quote Originally Posted by kdarnell233 View Post
    Keep in mind, the ratings below take into account strength of schedule and garbage time. The numbers are based on point contributions of each unit to the teams scoring margin on a per-play basis. It's on a 0.0-100.0 scale with 50.0 being average. Here's the Sun Belt offenses:

    Georgia State: 76.8
    Louisiana: 72.3
    App State: 70.2
    ULM: 57.0
    Arkansas State: 52.6
    Troy: 46.7
    CCU: 38.4
    Southern: 25.2
    Texas State: 11.6
    South Alabama: 10.3

    Defense:

    App State: 55.5
    Louisiana: 52.3
    Texas State: 48.7
    Southern: 46.6
    CCU: 38.3
    Arkansas State: 37.4
    South Alabama: 32.0
    Georgia State: 27.0
    ULM: 25.7
    Troy: 24.2
    I think there's something screwy going on because no way is State's offense better than App. App is better statistically and I don't think they've played any worse a group of defenses

    I'm also wondering why it values App's defense so much. Compare the offenses we've faced:
    1. Compare LSU to ULL
    2. Compare Minnesota to UNC (Minnesota is a lot better)
    3. Compare ULL to Coastal
    4. Compare Coastal to Charlotte

    All that and App's defensive yards per play is 0.2 yards less than ours.
    "Follow the trendlines, not the headlines." -Steven Pinker (?)

    Regarding football Scheduling.

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