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Thread: CCL and his onside kicks...

  1. Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by GATAlac El Dorado View Post
    Just so we’re clear, is it a.) a perpetual curse on this program, b.) the general statistical probability associated with the play, or c.) your belief in the inability of the current roster and staff to execute it?

    If it’s a, that’s absurd.

    If it’s b, then you should be arguing that no team should ever do it, which you’re not. Also, it’s been debunked pretty thoroughly here: http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/201...e-onside-kick/
    by someone who does care to look up stats.

    If it’s c, then you wouldn’t keep making reference to a and b as support for your argument.
    OK.

    That article contains the 60% success rate for onside kicks again.....

    Where does that come from? Is it a reliable number?

    I can see 60% if you include HS and all the JV teams, but it’s nowhere near that successful at the college level and above.

    This is a much more relevant article:

    https://www.apnews.com/a8e1a1c67f1e49088c77e9caf1afb311

    We play at a high enough level that an onside is always a bad bet. Defenses at our level know how to read an onside miles away.

    And yes, our success rate of ONE over the past decade bears that out.

    It’s an extremely low probability play, unless you play Pumpkin Patch HS. No colleges or NFL teams have anywhere near a 60% success rate.

    Show me any college teams which have anywhere near that rate. I sure can’t find them.

  2. #102
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    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by jcountry View Post
    OK.

    That article contains the 60% success rate for onside kicks again.....

    Where does that come from? Is it a reliable number?

    I can see 60% if you include HS and all the JV teams, but it’s nowhere near that successful at the college level and above.

    This is a much more relevant article:

    https://www.apnews.com/a8e1a1c67f1e49088c77e9caf1afb311

    We play at a high enough level that an onside is always a bad bet. Defenses at our level know how to read an onside miles away.

    And yes, our success rate of ONE over the past decade bears that out.

    It’s an extremely low probability play, unless you play Pumpkin Patch HS. No colleges or NFL teams have anywhere near a 60% success rate.

    Show me any college teams which have anywhere near that rate. I sure can’t find them.
    Why would anyone ever rely on a Harvard study for reliable numbers, AMIRITE????

    The 60% does not include HS, it's a college number because it comes in a study on college games. If it included HS, it would have said it included HS.

    Why is an article about the NFL (that even says in the article that a lot of it is due to the NFL rule changes) have MORE relevance to a discussion about college percentages of success? Other then the simple fact that it agrees with your biased opinion, it is completely different. Based on your ASSUMPTION that its easier to be successful on an OK in HS than in college, wouldn't it bear out that it would be easier to do it in college than the NFL? So why would NFL numbers be MORE relevant?

    Multiple people have told you and showed you that there are studies that show that a surprise OK is successful about 60% of the time in college, but you still IGNORE that and continue to go on and on about how you don't believe it. As I said before, what ONE college team has for a percentage is irrelevant because the sample size is so small. What percentage every college team has had over a decade or so is much more relevant. Do you think the earth is flat? Do you think the moon landing was a hoax? Do you believe in Big Foot and the Loch Ness Monster?

    Dude.......give it a rest!!!!
    Anything worth shooting is worth shooting twice. Ammo is cheap. Life is expensive

  3. #103

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by jcountry View Post
    OK.

    That article contains the 60% success rate for onside kicks again.....

    Where does that come from? Is it a reliable number?

    I can see 60% if you include HS and all the JV teams, but it’s nowhere near that successful at the college level and above.

    This is a much more relevant article:

    https://www.apnews.com/a8e1a1c67f1e49088c77e9caf1afb311

    We play at a high enough level that an onside is always a bad bet. Defenses at our level know how to read an onside miles away.

    And yes, our success rate of ONE over the past decade bears that out.

    It’s an extremely low probability play, unless you play Pumpkin Patch HS. No colleges or NFL teams have anywhere near a 60% success rate.

    Show me any college teams which have anywhere near that rate. I sure can’t find them.
    It’s attributed to advancednflstats.com for the period 2001-2010. By your previously stated logic, college should be even better.
    Ever devoted to the twin causes of reason and justice . . . ever at risk of waxing verbose

  4. Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by GATAlac El Dorado View Post
    It’s attributed to advancednflstats.com for the period 2001-2010. By your previously stated logic, college should be even better.

    My logic is correct.

    College teams are MUCH better at defending onside kicks. This ain't Pumpkin Patch HS.

    And I call that 60% stat into question.....

    People can put whatever they want online, doesn't make it true.

    The 60% success rate has simply never, ever been true at the college or NFL level for any team, season, conference, or anything else anyone can find actual facts for.

    I have no idea why folks are buying that BS hook/line/sinker. It is simply not true and has never been. 60% is a gross exaggeration. It's laughable.

    Go ahead and fin me ANY comparable college team with anywhere near a 60% (find one with even a 30% rate) and you've changed my mind.

  5. #105

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by jcountry View Post
    My logic is correct.

    College teams are MUCH better at defending onside kicks. This ain't Pumpkin Patch HS.

    And I call that 60% stat into question.....

    People can put whatever they want online, doesn't make it true.

    The 60% success rate has simply never, ever been true at the college or NFL level for any team, season, conference, or anything else anyone can find actual facts for.

    I have no idea why folks are buying that BS hook/line/sinker. It is simply not true and has never been. 60% is a gross exaggeration. It's laughable.

    Online sources can and do lie to us every day. I am telling y'all 60% is not an accurate number, and has never, ever been for the game of American Football-at any level above HS.
    The 60% is for unexpected onside kicks, which are a fraction of all onside kicks - 108 total for those 10 years to be precise.

    My source is Harvard Sports Analytics.

    Your source is .. . . you . . . who proudly admits he “doesn’t care to look up stats”.
    Ever devoted to the twin causes of reason and justice . . . ever at risk of waxing verbose

  6. Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by GATAlac El Dorado View Post
    The 60% is for unexpected onside kicks, which are a fraction of all onside kicks - 108 total for those 10 years to be precise.

    My source is Harvard Sports Analytics.

    Your source is .. . . you . . . who proudly admits he “doesn’t care to look up stats”.
    Once again, you link to something with the 60% stat. That article is the source of the stat, and I am trying to tell you it's not correct.

    I can't find anything to confirm 60% anywhere. The guy who wrote that is a blog author. I think he just pulled that number off wikipedia. Anyone can put anything on wikipedia. Half of it is total BS.

    I'm saying the number is incorrect. I can't find anything to show whether than number includes HS. I think it does. (I could buy the 60% number for HS. I think someone just stumbled across a stat related to HS and based all their "research" on that number. Anyone who ever watches college football knows that 60% has never been anywhere close to the actual sucessrate, not even for elite teams.)

    Reliable numbers for college and NFL are all under 30% success rate. More like 15%.
    Example:


    Pro Football Reference is a great place to find out stuff like this.
    This link shows all the onside kicks from this season: http://pfref.com/tiny/TGRTK
    The success rate was 9/66 or about 13.6%.
    Looking at the last 5 years, they showed 24 successful conversions of 300 attempts, which is 8%. Although it's unclear if PFRef indicated successful kicks for the entirety of that time span. For instance, they show zero successful conversions in both 2013 and 2014, but show 6/59 successful conversions for 2012, and 9/57 for 2011.
    So combining the data for 2011, 2012, and 2015, there were 24 successful conversions on 182 attempts for an average success rate of 13.19%.

  7. #107

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by jcountry View Post
    Once again, you link to something with the 60% stat. That article is the source of the stat, and I am trying to tell you it's not correct.

    I can't find anything to confirm 60% anywhere. The guy who wrote that is a blog author. I think he just pulled that number off wikipedia. Anyone can put anything on wikipedia. Half of it is total BS.

    I'm saying the number is incorrect. I can't find anything to show whether than number includes HS. I think it does.

    Reliable numbers for college and NFL are all under 30% success rate. More like 15%.
    Example:


    Pro Football Reference is a great place to find out stuff like this.
    This link shows all the onside kicks from this season: http://pfref.com/tiny/TGRTK
    The success rate was 9/66 or about 13.6%.
    Looking at the last 5 years, they showed 24 successful conversions of 300 attempts, which is 8%. Although it's unclear if PFRef indicated successful kicks for the entirety of that time span. For instance, they show zero successful conversions in both 2013 and 2014, but show 6/59 successful conversions for 2012, and 9/57 for 2011.
    So combining the data for 2011, 2012, and 2015, there were 24 successful conversions on 182 attempts for an average success rate of 13.19%.
    None of those analyze anything other than total kicks, which skews the numbers since the vast majority of kicks are desperation and the receiving team knows it’s coming.

    The only two that break the numbers down by situation are the one previously mentioned and this one, which shows 54% over 2 seasons, which is from NFL.com and I’m assuming you’ll claim is also completely fabricated because your gut tells you so:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20070813...pert/brandt/st
    Ever devoted to the twin causes of reason and justice . . . ever at risk of waxing verbose

  8. #108

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Oh, boy...anecdotes over data.

  9. Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by GATAlac El Dorado View Post
    None of those analyze anything other than total kicks, which skews the numbers since the vast majority of kicks are desperation and the receiving team knows it’s coming.

    The only two that break the numbers down by situation are the one previously mentioned and this one, which shows 54% over 2 seasons, which is from NFL.com and I’m assuming you’ll claim is also completely fabricated because your gut tells you so:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20070813...pert/brandt/st
    Once again.

    Show me any college team anywhere near comparable to us with stats of even 30%.

  10. #110
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    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by jcountry View Post
    Once again.

    Show me any college team anywhere near comparable to us with stats of even 30%.
    Blue Mountain State

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