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Thread: CCL and his onside kicks...

  1. #81

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by jcountry View Post
    OK.

    That article contains the 60% success rate for onside kicks again.....

    Where does that come from? Is it a reliable number?

    I can see 60% if you include HS and all the JV teams, but it’s nowhere near that successful at the college level and above.

    This is a much more relevant article:

    https://www.apnews.com/a8e1a1c67f1e49088c77e9caf1afb311

    We play at a high enough level that an onside is always a bad bet. Defenses at our level know how to read an onside miles away.

    And yes, our success rate of ONE over the past decade bears that out.

    It’s an extremely low probability play, unless you play Pumpkin Patch HS. No colleges or NFL teams have anywhere near a 60% success rate.

    Show me any college teams which have anywhere near that rate. I sure can’t find them.
    It’s attributed to advancednflstats.com for the period 2001-2010. By your previously stated logic, college should be even better.
    Sincerely,
    Irwin M. Fletcher

    P.S.: Have a nice day!

  2. #82

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by jcountry View Post
    My logic is correct.

    College teams are MUCH better at defending onside kicks. This ain't Pumpkin Patch HS.

    And I call that 60% stat into question.....

    People can put whatever they want online, doesn't make it true.

    The 60% success rate has simply never, ever been true at the college or NFL level for any team, season, conference, or anything else anyone can find actual facts for.

    I have no idea why folks are buying that BS hook/line/sinker. It is simply not true and has never been. 60% is a gross exaggeration. It's laughable.

    Online sources can and do lie to us every day. I am telling y'all 60% is not an accurate number, and has never, ever been for the game of American Football-at any level above HS.
    The 60% is for unexpected onside kicks, which are a fraction of all onside kicks - 108 total for those 10 years to be precise.

    My source is Harvard Sports Analytics.

    Your source is .. . . you . . . who proudly admits he “doesn’t care to look up stats”.
    Sincerely,
    Irwin M. Fletcher

    P.S.: Have a nice day!

  3. #83

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by jcountry View Post
    Once again, you link to something with the 60% stat. That article is the source of the stat, and I am trying to tell you it's not correct.

    I can't find anything to confirm 60% anywhere. The guy who wrote that is a blog author. I think he just pulled that number off wikipedia. Anyone can put anything on wikipedia. Half of it is total BS.

    I'm saying the number is incorrect. I can't find anything to show whether than number includes HS. I think it does.

    Reliable numbers for college and NFL are all under 30% success rate. More like 15%.
    Example:


    Pro Football Reference is a great place to find out stuff like this.
    This link shows all the onside kicks from this season: http://pfref.com/tiny/TGRTK
    The success rate was 9/66 or about 13.6%.
    Looking at the last 5 years, they showed 24 successful conversions of 300 attempts, which is 8%. Although it's unclear if PFRef indicated successful kicks for the entirety of that time span. For instance, they show zero successful conversions in both 2013 and 2014, but show 6/59 successful conversions for 2012, and 9/57 for 2011.
    So combining the data for 2011, 2012, and 2015, there were 24 successful conversions on 182 attempts for an average success rate of 13.19%.
    None of those analyze anything other than total kicks, which skews the numbers since the vast majority of kicks are desperation and the receiving team knows it’s coming.

    The only two that break the numbers down by situation are the one previously mentioned and this one, which shows 54% over 2 seasons, which is from NFL.com and I’m assuming you’ll claim is also completely fabricated because your gut tells you so:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20070813...pert/brandt/st
    Sincerely,
    Irwin M. Fletcher

    P.S.: Have a nice day!

  4. #84

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Oh, boy...anecdotes over data.

  5. #85
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    The 19th Hole
    Posts
    13,682

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by jcountry View Post
    Once again.

    Show me any college team anywhere near comparable to us with stats of even 30%.
    Blue Mountain State

  6. #86

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by jcountry View Post
    Once again.

    Show me any college team anywhere near comparable to us with stats of even 30%.
    So, only two studies have been done on surprise kicks, both of which illustrate >50% success rate, at a level above college, which your logic suggests would imply that college should be even better, you have no data on surprise kicks refuting this data, and your best retort is that if I’m not willing to do my own 2-week independent study on who knows how many individual teams until I find one that you’ll accept, you just ain’t gonna believe it because you specifically remember us failing a few times?
    Sincerely,
    Irwin M. Fletcher

    P.S.: Have a nice day!

  7. #87
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Reidsville, GA
    Posts
    1,448

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by jcountry View Post
    Once again.

    Show me any college team anywhere near comparable to us with stats of even 30%.
    During App State's time in FBS (2014-2019), the Mountaineers are 3/4 on onside kick attempts. Their opponents over that same time span are 6/14.
    Last edited by spdrumline; 11th September 2019 at 12:26 PM.
    Zach Towery
    Bachelor of Music '09
    Master of Music '12
    Reidsville, GA



  8. #88

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by jcountry View Post
    OK.



    I think it was a stupid call, given the situation and given our likelihood of success.

    Good day!
    I can’t argue with your subjective opinion. If that’s what you’d left it at there wouldn’t have been anything to debate.

    Good day to you, sir!
    Sincerely,
    Irwin M. Fletcher

    P.S.: Have a nice day!

  9. #89

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Well, this has been...enlightening...
    Cameron Smith
    GS Student 2007-2011
    GS Fanatic 2007-the end of time

  10. #90

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by jcountry View Post

    People can put whatever they want online, doesn't make it true.
    this is too rich.

    hail southern
    A fool uttereth all his mind: but a wise man keepeth it in till afterwards.
    Proverbs 29:11

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