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View Poll Results: What will be our 2019 record in football?

Voters
71. You may not vote on this poll
  • 12-0

    2 2.82%
  • 11-1

    3 4.23%
  • 10-2

    9 12.68%
  • 9-3

    23 32.39%
  • 8-4

    29 40.85%
  • 7-5

    4 5.63%
  • 6-6

    0 0%
  • 5-7

    0 0%
  • 4-8

    0 0%
  • 3-9 or worse

    1 1.41%
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Thread: 2019 Record PredictionThread

  1. #11

    Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    Quote Originally Posted by Buzz Killington View Post
    I see no way we match 10 wins.

    6-8 wins regular season. BEST case scenario, we get 9 wins with a bowl victory.

    I'll make my official prediction at 7-5 regular season.

    Last year we won at least 2 games that analytics say we would have lost on most nights (Texas State and EMU).

    We lucked up and pulled those out. We also had flukey turnover luck which can't be recreated as well as a flukey injury in the App game which turned into a blowout.

    On top of that, we had a MUCH more favorable schedule. Winning 10 games last year should get Lunsford a statue.

    If he wins ten games this year, he's better than Erk.

    If he strings together 3 ten win seasons, he will take a better job.
    Still think people are making too much of the turnover margin. The only thing that was remarkable about our turnover numbers was not having any interceptions. Chalk that up to Werts being afraid to throw the ball if you want, but that's not luck. We got lucky with getting our own fumbles back, but we also had issues with snaps and exchanges that will get better.

    We also have going for us:

    We should be significantly better early in the season and better overall. We haven't even really seen the full breadth of the offense yet.

    Troy is losing their head coach, their 3 leading receivers, and half their defensive starters including their two best players to the transfer portal. App returns a ton of starters but have both a HC and DC that run systems a good bit different than what they have been running. They probably won't drop off a cliff but there's a chance we'll be better than both of them. History shows that when G5 teams get their HC poached the next guy up usually isn't as good.
    Don't choose to be annoyed. Choose to be amused.

    If you think TK is the reason we don't have better non-conference football schedules, see this post.

  2. #12

    Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    11-1 with LSU being the only loss. Troy and Appy are on the road, but both lost HC and as we have seen first hand replacing a very good HC is tough. I think Minnesota is winnable.

  3. #13

    Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    8-5 at season's end. Still not sure if that is a 7-5 regular season with a bowl win or 8-4 with a bowl loss...we'll see.

  4. #14

    Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    I think 8-4 then a bowl win. But with a few good bounces, we could go 10-2.

  5. #15

    Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    Quote Originally Posted by Dave. View Post
    Agree here except we lose to App for 8-4

    I went back and forth on that one. Thursday night in Boone will be tough, but with us returning a lot of players and them with a new staff, I like our chances to play better than we typically do. If we lost to App, I would give us a W at Troy though, so I stuck with 9-3.

  6. #16

    Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    Quote Originally Posted by BillyBob View Post
    Still think people are making too much of the turnover margin. The only thing that was remarkable about our turnover numbers was not having any interceptions. Chalk that up to Werts being afraid to throw the ball if you want, but that's not luck. We got lucky with getting our own fumbles back, but we also had issues with snaps and exchanges that will get better.
    I know you and Buzz have kind of gone back-and-forth on the subject, but consider this: We were T-12, T-9, and T-20 in fumbles recovered, fumbles lost, and passes intercepted, and of course #1 in passes had intercepted. Our turnover margin was 37% better than the next best team. Unless we forced a lot more fumbles than average and fumbled a lot less than average (regardless of who recovered), being in the upper decile in both fumbles recovered and fumbles lost would seem to be a pretty extraordinary statistical anomaly. Zero interceptions was an all-time record which will likely not be approached as we anticipate throwing at least a little more and coach Shai to take a few more chances on passes that aren't 100%. About the only thing we can count on being replicated is the defensive secondary play, but as you like to say, we should expect to regress toward the mean in both fumbles categories whether due to the number of fumble incidences or recovery luck.
    Ever devoted to the twin causes of reason and justice . . . ever at risk of waxing verbose

  7. Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    7-5 one win over the big 6. We beat Appy and are bowl eligible.

  8. #18

    Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    Quote Originally Posted by GATAlac El Dorado View Post
    I know you and Buzz have kind of gone back-and-forth on the subject, but consider this: We were T-12, T-9, and T-20 in fumbles recovered, fumbles lost, and passes intercepted, and of course #1 in passes had intercepted. Our turnover margin was 37% better than the next best team. Unless we forced a lot more fumbles than average and fumbled a lot less than average (regardless of who recovered), being in the upper decile in both fumbles recovered and fumbles lost would seem to be a pretty extraordinary statistical anomaly. Zero interceptions was an all-time record which will likely not be approached as we anticipate throwing at least a little more and coach Shai to take a few more chances on passes that aren't 100%. About the only thing we can count on being replicated is the defensive secondary play, but as you like to say, we should expect to regress toward the mean in both fumbles categories whether due to the number of fumble incidences or recovery luck.
    I would argue TM comes down to (1) coaching and (2) your player personnel and experience. App State has been in the top 30 in TM the last 3 seasons. Both of Willie Fritz's teams here were in the top 30 in turnover margin. Pick your top 5 coaches in college football and I guarantee you they have positive turnover margins much more often than not. If we have fumble issues this season it'll be because someone who got no or very few carries last season gets a significant number this season. I don't think we'll be in the top 10 two years in a row, but you aren't completely at the mercy of the dice.

    I also think people overestimate the impact turnovers had on the season as a whole. We had 3 close games. EMU had no turnovers, so take that off the list. Texas State we got a fumble and gave it right back with our own fumble and picked off a pass right before half time. You can say we caught a break there but we didn't win because of turnovers. That fumble on Ark State helped us out, but if they had scored there (given how bad they were in the red zone that's not a given) it's OT and not a loss.
    Don't choose to be annoyed. Choose to be amused.

    If you think TK is the reason we don't have better non-conference football schedules, see this post.

  9. #19

    Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    I looked at ESPN to look at our offensive turnovers and teampenalties for the past five seasons. I did not list interceptions as we do not throw enough in most years to be a fair comparison (still our number of INTs the past 5 seasons are 0,7,9,10,4).

    2018: Fumbles/Lost:10/5

    Penalties:57-500 yards

    2017: Fumbles/Lost: 36/13

    Penalties:77-648yards

    2016: Fumbles/Lost: 18/9

    Penalties:91-772yards

    2015: Fumbles/Lost:18/11

    Penalties:62-584 yards

    2014: Fumbles/Lost:20/8

    Penalties:57-556 yards



    A couple of things jumped out at me:
    1) our percentage of fumbles lost in 2018 is not unusual,but the low number of total fumbles was insanely low. That reflects our experience in the backfield and discipline.You can’t help how the ball bounces when it hits the ground, but you can prevent it from hitting the ground in the first place.
    2) Our number of penalties and total penalty yardage in 2018 was a huge improvement and even better than the Fritz years.
    3) We were horribly undisciplined under CTS. 36 fumbles in 2017? 648 and 772 yards of penalties in those years?

  10. #20

    Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    Quote Originally Posted by gwinnetteagle88 View Post

    3) We were horribly undisciplined under CTS. 36 fumbles in 2017? 648 and 772 yards of penalties in those years?
    It's almost as if we had a really bad coach or something...
    Cameron Smith
    GS Student 2007-2011
    GS Fanatic 2007-the end of time

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