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View Poll Results: What will be our 2019 record in football?

Voters
96. You may not vote on this poll
  • 12-0

    2 2.08%
  • 11-1

    4 4.17%
  • 10-2

    10 10.42%
  • 9-3

    28 29.17%
  • 8-4

    42 43.75%
  • 7-5

    8 8.33%
  • 6-6

    1 1.04%
  • 5-7

    0 0%
  • 4-8

    0 0%
  • 3-9 or worse

    1 1.04%
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Results 21 to 30 of 148

Thread: 2019 Record PredictionThread

  1. #21

    Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    Quote Originally Posted by BillyBob View Post
    I would argue TM comes down to (1) coaching and (2) your player personnel and experience. App State has been in the top 30 in TM the last 3 seasons. Both of Willie Fritz's teams here were in the top 30 in turnover margin. Pick your top 5 coaches in college football and I guarantee you they have positive turnover margins much more often than not. If we have fumble issues this season it'll be because someone who got no or very few carries last season gets a significant number this season. I don't think we'll be in the top 10 two years in a row, but you aren't completely at the mercy of the dice.

    I also think people overestimate the impact turnovers had on the season as a whole. We had 3 close games. EMU had no turnovers, so take that off the list. Texas State we got a fumble and gave it right back with our own fumble and picked off a pass right before half time. You can say we caught a break there but we didn't win because of turnovers. That fumble on Ark State helped us out, but if they had scored there (given how bad they were in the red zone that's not a given) it's OT and not a loss.
    I think conventional wisdom disagrees with you in a few ways re: ability to influence TM.

    My logic is is as follows:

    1. Fumbles recovered are a function of a. the number of fumbles by the other team, and b. number of those fumbles you recover. Only a portion of fumbles by the other team can even be attributed to your defense, and of the ones that are, only a portion of those could be attributed to superior coaching/personnel, as most are flukey results of a random arm or helmet making contact in just such a way as to knock the ball loose.

    Once the oblong ball is on the ground, you’d be hard pressed to convince me that recovery by one randomly placed player over another is a result of a superior fumble recovery ‘system’. All of the above applies with regard to fumbles lost, as well. Therefore, you can only even potentially influence a portion of a portion of a portion of fumbles through coaching/personnel.

    Of course our limited passing reduces the opportunity to throw picks, but even for us, ZERO is a pretty serious outlier.

    There’s no way to speculate as to the potential butterfly effect of a turnover that didn’t happen, but certainly it would be better stated that in the case of the Ark St game, a loss absolutely is a potential outcome of an OT situation.

    Can better teams consistently outperform the mean? Of course, but I’d attribute that to disparities in coaching/talent on a scale that doesn’t likely exist across, say, the Sunbelt.
    Ever devoted to the twin causes of reason and justice . . . ever at risk of waxing verbose

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Evans, GA
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    17,072

    Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    If our offense achieves the expected improvement, I believe it will offset a reduced turnover margin.

  3. #23

    Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    Quote Originally Posted by Walt3412 View Post
    If our offense achieves the expected improvement, I believe it will offset a reduced turnover margin.
    I agree.

    I think the defense probably will be better, and the in-conference coaching changes will work in our favor.

    I voted 9-3, but should have voted 8-4. I think we'll be an objectively better team in 2019, playing a tougher schedule. The biggest difference is playing two P5 teams.
    Thanks, Rastabot!
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  4. #24

    Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    Quote Originally Posted by Walt3412 View Post
    If our offense achieves the expected improvement, I believe it will offset a reduced turnover margin.
    very good point.

  5. #25

    Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    Quote Originally Posted by pete4256 View Post
    I agree.

    I think the defense probably will be better, and the in-conference coaching changes will work in our favor.

    I voted 9-3, but should have voted 8-4. I think we'll be an objectively better team in 2019, playing a tougher schedule. The biggest difference is playing two P5 teams.
    very good point. 1st game of season at LSU that will be tough. 3rd game of season, with no injuries vs Minnesota?, I think we got a good chance to go in there and beat them(Bass may be huge in that one, golly I love having a great kicker as a weapon).

  6. #26

    Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    Quote Originally Posted by GATAlac El Dorado View Post
    I think conventional wisdom disagrees with you in a few ways re: ability to influence TM.

    My logic is is as follows:

    1. Fumbles recovered are a function of a. the number of fumbles by the other team, and b. number of those fumbles you recover. Only a portion of fumbles by the other team can even be attributed to your defense, and of the ones that are, only a portion of those could be attributed to superior coaching/personnel, as most are flukey results of a random arm or helmet making contact in just such a way as to knock the ball loose.

    Once the oblong ball is on the ground, you’d be hard pressed to convince me that recovery by one randomly placed player over another is a result of a superior fumble recovery ‘system’. All of the above applies with regard to fumbles lost, as well. Therefore, you can only even potentially influence a portion of a portion of a portion of fumbles through coaching/personnel.

    Of course our limited passing reduces the opportunity to throw picks, but even for us, ZERO is a pretty serious outlier.

    There’s no way to speculate as to the potential butterfly effect of a turnover that didn’t happen, but certainly it would be better stated that in the case of the Ark St game, a loss absolutely is a potential outcome of an OT situation.

    Can better teams consistently outperform the mean? Of course, but I’d attribute that to disparities in coaching/talent on a scale that doesn’t likely exist across, say, the Sunbelt.
    You're misunderstanding me. I'm not talking about what happens after a fumble, I'm talking about preventing them in the first place. We got back more than our fair share of fumbles for sure, but we also have more than our fair share of turnovers created from bad snaps and exchanges. It's a wash.

    As far as fumbles go, wouldn't you agree that coaching emphasis on ball security and player experience can make a difference? I remember in 2010 in Monken's first year we had fumble issues (especially Robert Brown). The next season we had almost all the same skill position players and it got better. 2016 we had largely the same skill position players as 2015 and we had fewer fumbles and giveaways on 50+ more plays in 2016.

    Of course we don't know for sure what would happen with Ark State but I think we'd be favored. All in all, I see nothing that tells me the turnovers propped up our record (at least not any more than 1 win). It's one thing to point out we won 3 of the 3 close games (you usually won't do that), but at least 2 of those games had absolutely nothing to do with turnovers.
    Last edited by BillyBob; 12th March 2019 at 03:11 PM.
    "Follow the trendlines, not the headlines." -Steven Pinker (?)

    REgardling football Scheduling.

  7. #27

    Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    Quote Originally Posted by Walt3412 View Post
    If our offense achieves the expected improvement, I believe it will offset a reduced turnover margin.
    I don’t disagree. Also, some turnovers are obviously more beneficial than others. We could drop way off and still have turnovers potentially play a big/bigger role depending on when they occur.

    True to form, I’m not really making a larger argument, I’m just arguing about the argument. . . .
    Ever devoted to the twin causes of reason and justice . . . ever at risk of waxing verbose

  8. #28

    Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    Quote Originally Posted by BillyBob View Post
    You're misunderstanding me. I'm not talking about what happens after a fumble, I'm talking about preventing them in the first place. We got back more than our fair share of fumbles for sure, but we also have more than our fair share of turnovers created from bad snaps and exchanges. It's a wash.

    As far as fumbles go, wouldn't you agree that coaching emphasis on ball security and player experience can make a difference? I remember in 2010 in Monken's first year we had fumble issues (especially Robert Brown). The next season we had almost all the same skill position players and it got better. 2016 we had largely the same skill position players as 2015 and we had fewer fumbles and giveaways on 50+ more plays in 2016.

    Of course we don't know for sure what would happen with Ark State but I think we'd be favored. All in all, I see nothing that tells me the turnovers propped up our record (at least not any more than 1 win). It's one thing to point out we won 3 of the 3 close games (you usually won't do that), but at least 2 of those games had absolutely nothing to do with turnovers.
    You're misunderstanding me. I'm not making an argument that we were substantially "propped up" by turnovers, I'm just saying that our numbers in 2018 were an extreme outlier and we should expect regress toward the mean -- without regard for how much they accounted for our success last year. I'm suggesting that ball security (and conversely, forcing fumbles) are fundamental football skills (like catching passes) that EVERYBODY emphasizes, and that you can at most hope to 'coach' or otherwise influence a tiny portion of total fumbles from us or them, and can by extension influence an even smaller portion of those fumbles that are recovered. I can't find stats on total fumbles us/them, only fumbles lost/recovered (turnovers), but I'm thinking we're talking at most a swing of 5 or 7 extra fumbles caused/fewer fumbles committed potentially attributable to coaching/emphasis, with half of those resulting in turnovers for or against, and half of those going for, so it hardly explains the +6 margin we had over the #2 team last year. My only point is that I think the lion's share of fumble-related turnover activity is attributable to more or less random factors, with a nominal amount attributable to coaching 'emphasis' or other influenceable factors. Interceptions are different animal, in my opinion.

    Billy Connelly even has a metric for what I'm talking about: Turnover Luck

    https://www.footballstudyhall.com/20...s-luck-in-2013
    Ever devoted to the twin causes of reason and justice . . . ever at risk of waxing verbose

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Warner Robins, GA
    Posts
    26,079

    Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    You can coach to minimize/reduce fumbles. We've made a point to focus on protecting the ball under Lunsford whereas under Summers those same mechanics/fundamentals suffered dramatically....and as a result our turnover margin suffered.

    You cannot coach to stop fumbles.

    Once a ball is on the ground, it's a 50/50 shot at who gets it. Interestingly, fumbles in the shotgun are seemingly more often recovered by the fumbling team than those under center.

    Our expected turnover margin last year was somewhere in the +12 range. It would have made the difference in a couple of games, but that would also be a more positive margin than we've had in a while so it's obvious we're doing things to improve our chances of staying on the plus side. It's easier to take advantage of luck that way.

    It's likely our TO margin regresses next year, but hopefully we'll still keep it positive in the double digit range.


  10. #30

    Default Re: 2019 Record PredictionThread

    Even if you don't buy our crazy turnover margin anamoly being unsustainable...we flat out have a harder schedule this year. We BETTER improve this year or we won't sniff a conference title.

    We essentially start the season 0-2 (We won't hang with Minnesota or LSU). So we'll need to go 9-1 in our competitive games to have a chance at 10 wins.

    I DO think our offense will improve (which is exciting).

    I'm curious to see if our defense gets better. They were honestly a bit overrated last year. Good at preventing big plays and red zone... defense...but plenty of room for improvement.

    If we can field a top 50 offense and defense, we'll have something special.
    Last edited by Buzz Killington; 12th March 2019 at 08:50 PM.

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