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Thread: Satterfield to Louisville?

  1. #71

    Default Re: Satterfield to Louisville?

    Quote Originally Posted by garns 4 View Post
    It will be interesting to see how Appy performs today with all the rumors flying around about their HC.
    +1. I remember how it affected us when everyone knew that CPJ was leaving.

  2. #72

    Default Re: Satterfield to Louisville?

    Quote Originally Posted by GATAlac El Dorado View Post
    I don't know if you'll find it convincing, but the fact is that the best any team can ever do is to go undefeated with the schedule that they have that year, so -- under the current state of FBS football -- you have to have 3 highly unlikely things coincide in a given year for it to be possible:

    1. There has to be an extraordinarily strong G5 team put on the field somewhere - one that is legitimately top 5% (not talking about polls, talking about actually being one of the top 5% of teams in the country). Likelihood in a given year: 1 in 10 (generously)

    2. That team has to somehow fortuitously have an especially strong schedule that year, which is unlikely because they are by definition in a G5 conference and their OOC games would all have to be against ranked opponents. Likelihood in a given year: 1 in 5 (generously)

    3. They have to actually beat everyone on their schedule, which is somewhat of an anomaly in itself (even though UCF has done it twice now), as even the best teams usually end up underperforming at some point during the season and laying one stinker. A G5 won't get a second bite at the apple like UGA after a loss to anyone. Likelihood in a given year: 1 in 5 (generously)

    -and all of that has to happen at the same time Likelihood in a given year: 1 in 250

    -and then the committee still has to subjectively buy in to them. Likelihood: 1 in whatever, but not likely

    So, while there's no rule that says they can't get in, the odds are long enough that it's practical to say "never", and that's before the subjectivity of the committee comes into play.

    So, even when a UCF or a Boise comes along every few years with an argument that they are legit, their schedules are only strong enough to potentially support that claim every few years, and if those two things should happen to coincide, you've still got to perform up to your potential flawlessly throughout the course of the year -- something very few teams ever do over a given season.

    I'll buy you a case of beer if it ever happens in a 4-team playoff.
    The way UCF has been treated and viewed the last two seasons should convince any G5 homer. Now your post leaves that glimmer of hope that it could happen. The first time a G5 team plays for a NC is when they will have two separate FBS NC's, one for P5's and one for G5's. Current system is rigged and they will never expand playoffs to the point where each season a G5 team is part of it. P5's have no intention of allowing their "boat" to be rocked.

  3. #73

    Default Re: Satterfield to Louisville?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eagle02120624 View Post
    Tell me one G5 since the playoff started that was better than either of the 4 teams in the playoff? For everyone that went to the Clemson game, you seen first at the difference in talent level.
    There is a difference in saying "a G5 will never make the playoffs because they can't get lots of 4 and 5-star players" and saying "a G5 will never make the playoffs because the CFP committee will keep them out no matter how well they do".

    The former is definitely a very real obstacle (although Tom Herman showed he could beat multiple top-10 teams by double digits at Houston and Chris Petersen beat a Pac-12 champ and absolutely ran through BSU's conference in 2009), but I don't buy into the latter.

    If UCF wants to get into the CFP they need to get over their megalomania and play some top programs (not Pitt and Maryland) even if it means taking a paycheck. I've seen absolutely nothing from them that makes me think they're a top-4.
    Last edited by BillyBob; 1st December 2018 at 09:12 AM.
    "Follow the trendlines, not the headlines." -Steven Pinker (?)

    Regarding football Scheduling.

  4. Default Re: Satterfield to Louisville?

    Quote Originally Posted by GATAlac El Dorado View Post
    I don't know if you'll find it convincing, but the fact is that the best any team can ever do is to go undefeated with the schedule that they have that year, so -- under the current state of FBS football -- you have to have 3 highly unlikely things coincide in a given year for it to be possible:

    1. There has to be an extraordinarily strong G5 team put on the field somewhere - one that is legitimately top 5% (not talking about polls, talking about actually being one of the top 5% of teams in the country). Likelihood in a given year: 1 in 10 (generously)

    2. That team has to somehow fortuitously have an especially strong schedule that year, which is unlikely because they are by definition in a G5 conference and their OOC games would all have to be against ranked opponents. Likelihood in a given year: 1 in 5 (generously)

    3. They have to actually beat everyone on their schedule, which is somewhat of an anomaly in itself (even though UCF has done it twice now), as even the best teams usually end up underperforming at some point during the season and laying one stinker. A G5 won't get a second bite at the apple like UGA after a loss to anyone. Likelihood in a given year: 1 in 5 (generously)

    -and all of that has to happen at the same time Likelihood in a given year: 1 in 250

    -and then the committee still has to subjectively buy in to them. Likelihood: 1 in whatever, but not likely

    So, while there's no rule that says they can't get in, the odds are long enough that it's practical to say "never", and that's before the subjectivity of the committee comes into play.

    So, even when a UCF or a Boise comes along every few years with an argument that they are legit, their schedules are only strong enough to potentially support that claim every few years, and if those two things should happen to coincide, you've still got to perform up to your potential flawlessly throughout the course of the year -- something very few teams ever do over a given season.

    I'll buy you a case of beer if it ever happens in a 4-team playoff.
    To add to that, with the current G5 scheduling philosophy of 1-P5, 2-G5, 1-FCS that many(if not most) G5 teams follow, you will most likely never get the strength of schedule needed, although playing and beating a top program (UGA, Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, etc.) would go a long way. An independent like Army of BYU can do it (UCF would be in now with a 12-0 record using BYU's schedule).
    Last edited by ga southern eagles; 1st December 2018 at 09:15 AM.

  5. Default Re: Satterfield to Louisville?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillyBob View Post
    There is a difference in saying "a G5 will never make the playoffs because they can't get lots of 4 and 5-star players" and saying "a G5 will never make the playoffs because the CFP committee will keep them out no matter how well they do".

    The former is definitely a very real obstacle (although Tom Herman showed he could beat multiple top-10 teams by double digits at Houston and Chris Petersen beat a Pac-12 champ and absolutely ran through BSU's conference in 2009), but I don't buy into the latter.

    If UCF wants to get into the CFP they need to get over their megalomania and play some top programs (not Pitt and Maryland) even if it means taking a paycheck. I've seen absolutely nothing from them that makes me think they're a top-4.
    You obviously havent read up on that subject. AD Danny White has said he has tried for the last few years to schedule home and homes with bigger teams and they wont do it. Its no different here. He also said he refuses to play neutral site games where the officiating crew is from the conference of the team they are playing against. P5 schools want to control all the aspects. I don't blame him one bit. Its complete BS. Its hard to enough to beat them with the talent advantage, almost impossible with the officiating crew as well

  6. Default Re: Satterfield to Louisville?

    This all comes down to money. UGA vs Okie last year in Rose bowl and it sold out. There was probably 40k-50k UGA fans there. Name a G5 team that even averages that at home. Had it been UCF, at most they bring 25k-30k. Also, dont think for one minute ratings aren't thought either. CFB is all about money these days.

  7. #77

    Default Re: Satterfield to Louisville?

    Quote Originally Posted by ga southern eagles View Post
    To add to that, with the current G5 scheduling philosophy of 1-P5, 2-G5, 1-FCS that many(if not most) G5 teams follow, you will most likely never get the strength of schedule needed, although playing and beating a top program (UGA, Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, etc.) would go a long way. An independent like Army of BYU can do it (UCF would be in now with a 12-0 record using BYU's schedule).
    This illustrates my point: UCF potentially has the team this year, but BYU has the schedule, and the chances that one program has both the team AND the schedule in a given year (AND doesn’t choke at any point throughout the year) are vanishingly remote.
    Sincerely,
    Irwin M. Fletcher

    P.S.: Have a nice day!

  8. #78

    Default Re: Satterfield to Louisville?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eagle02120624 View Post
    You obviously havent read up on that subject. AD Danny White has said he has tried for the last few years to schedule home and homes with bigger teams and they wont do it. Its no different here. He also said he refuses to play neutral site games where the officiating crew is from the conference of the team they are playing against. P5 schools want to control all the aspects. I don't blame him one bit. Its complete BS. Its hard to enough to beat them with the talent advantage, almost impossible with the officiating crew as well
    Like I said, they (as well as a lot of the teams in the AAC) need to get over their delusions of grandeur and take paycheck games. The Alabamas and Clemsons and Ohio States aren't doing home-and-homes with them.

    And if you don't get a top team to play you, at least look likee a top-4 team and not squak by a Memphis team that was destroyed by Mizzou and a Temple team that lost to a mediocre FCS team.
    "Follow the trendlines, not the headlines." -Steven Pinker (?)

    Regarding football Scheduling.

  9. Default Re: Satterfield to Louisville?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillyBob View Post
    Like I said, they (as well as a lot of the teams in the AAC) need to get over their delusions of grandeur and take paycheck games. The Alabamas and Clemsons and Ohio States aren't doing home-and-homes with them.

    And if you don't get a top team to play you, at least look likee a top-4 team and not squak by a Memphis team that was destroyed by Mizzou and a Temple team that lost to a mediocre FCS team.
    You do realize these schedules 3-5 years in advance. Mississippi St did it with South Alabama a few years ago i believe. They dont need a paycheck like we do. Im not saying they deserve to be in the top 4 at all. I dont think they are even one of the the ten best teams in the country. Most of yall were already thinking about an access bowl after we beat App knowing good and well it was highly, highly unlikely that we get to that in the next 10 years.

  10. #80
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    Default Re: Satterfield to Louisville?

    Quote Originally Posted by JDC325 View Post
    No G5 is going to make it in playing and FCS and only one P5 game. If a G5 schedules a FCS team you basically concede not being in the discussion. Very few FCS teams are not going to pull your SOS down a ton, or severely hurt the perception of your G5 schedule even more. You give ammo to the committee to disregard a win.
    Didn't Auburn play 2 FCS teams they year they won the title? Citadel and someone else?
    No longer eating crow for saying "The TO is gone get over it!!"

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